Saturday, December 31, 2005
Year ends at +53%
As 2005 draws to a close and stock market trading ceases, I've done my sums and calculated my return for the year as +53%. This easily trounces last year's performance of +14% and this year's FTSE 100 index return of +16%.
I'm over the moon with this - it's a result far in excess of what I could have expected at the start of the year. The first challenge for 2006 will be to find a home for the proceeds of my Dana Petroleum sale. Efforts must be stepped up.
Portfolio values, 30th November 2005:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (60.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (60.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/2003 at 223.75p (917p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (28.5p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (28.5p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (104p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (104p)
+ cash holdings
I have sold my largest position, Dana Petroleum since and on the final day of trade in 2005, the standings were:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (60p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (60p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (30p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (30p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (117p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (117p)
+ cash holdings
I expect big moves from SVB and Fayrewood in 2006. I hope any readers have enjoyed my blog in 2005 and will wish me luck for 2006.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
I'm over the moon with this - it's a result far in excess of what I could have expected at the start of the year. The first challenge for 2006 will be to find a home for the proceeds of my Dana Petroleum sale. Efforts must be stepped up.
Portfolio values, 30th November 2005:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (60.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (60.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/2003 at 223.75p (917p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (28.5p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (28.5p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (104p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (104p)
+ cash holdings
I have sold my largest position, Dana Petroleum since and on the final day of trade in 2005, the standings were:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (60p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (60p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (30p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (30p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (117p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (117p)
+ cash holdings
I expect big moves from SVB and Fayrewood in 2006. I hope any readers have enjoyed my blog in 2005 and will wish me luck for 2006.
The Artful Dodger
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
Dana: so long and thanks for the dosh
Yesterday's disappointment from Dana Petroleum and subsequent price movement gave me the opportunity to sell my entire holding for 925p.
Dana announced its Faucon-1 well offshore Mauritania had failed to find any more hydrocarbons. The well has been sealed over and abandoned.
925p represented a great opportunity for me to exit this share. Recent news from Dana has been disappointing and no firm dates have been confirmed for Dana's next African drilling. Dana remains an excellent company but this latest exploration failure, along with recent production declines (albeit temporary) have pushed me to the exit.
The challenge for the holiday period is to identify new opportunities for investment. Some hard work lies ahead.
Merry Christmas to all readers.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
Dana announced its Faucon-1 well offshore Mauritania had failed to find any more hydrocarbons. The well has been sealed over and abandoned.
925p represented a great opportunity for me to exit this share. Recent news from Dana has been disappointing and no firm dates have been confirmed for Dana's next African drilling. Dana remains an excellent company but this latest exploration failure, along with recent production declines (albeit temporary) have pushed me to the exit.
The challenge for the holiday period is to identify new opportunities for investment. Some hard work lies ahead.
Merry Christmas to all readers.
The Artful Dodger
Monday, December 19, 2005
Another routine Tuesday tomorrow
Tomorrow will bring another update from Dana and it's partners in the Faucon well offshore Mauritania. Today, Dana's shares advanced a handsome 4% in anticipation to close at their highest point since my purchase. Dana Petroleum first entered my portfolio in October 2003 at 223.75p. I never had the opportunity or the funds to increase my position. The buy price never retreated from that point. This has culminated today, just over two years later, in a share price of 1,020p - delivering a profit over four times my stake.
Tomorrow's announcement will provide the crucial information in deciding if the Faucon discovery will be commercially exploited. For this to happen, significant hydrocarbon showings at the target depth must be encountered, much greater than the finds higher up in the well. Anything short of this could see the shares retreat sharply from today's closing price. In this case, I'd have to move quickly to sell, depending on the prices being offered in the market at the time.
Some quick thinking could be called for tomorrow a.m.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
Tomorrow's announcement will provide the crucial information in deciding if the Faucon discovery will be commercially exploited. For this to happen, significant hydrocarbon showings at the target depth must be encountered, much greater than the finds higher up in the well. Anything short of this could see the shares retreat sharply from today's closing price. In this case, I'd have to move quickly to sell, depending on the prices being offered in the market at the time.
Some quick thinking could be called for tomorrow a.m.
The Artful Dodger
Friday, December 16, 2005
Another week of waiting on Dana
Well, Tuesday came and went without significant news from Dana Petroleum. The company released this drilling update:
An intermediate logging programme was completed over the Upper Cretaceous interval, above 11,601 feet... Initial interpretation of the data collected indicates the presence of two hydrocarbon bearing sandstones, which are some 500 feet apart. The lower sandstone has a gross thickness of approximately 131 feet of which the upper 33 feet contains a hydrocarbon which, based on the data available so far, appears to be a light oil or a liquids rich gas-condensate. The upper sandstone is 13 feet thick and is currently interpreted to be gas bearing... The intermediate interval logged and described above has examined the Cretaceous above a depth of 11,601 feet. There is potential for other sands to be present in the remaining 2,299 feet (701m) or so of section still to be examined as drilling continues down to the planned total depth of 13,900 feet.
So, on the way down to target depth, Dana has encountered significant oil shows and more could follow soon. It remains to be seen if the discovery made so far will be commercialised but given the well location and the thickness of the hydrocarbon regions encountered my guess would be not. But drilling hasn't reached target depth yet. Next Tuesday's announcement will probably be the most significant Dana has made since I invested over two years ago.
Elsewhere, my large short position, Countrywide, made me suffer a sudoriferous morning yesterday. Since placing my bet in August that Countrywide shares would fall, the share price has moved against me substantially. After first shorting at 328p, the shares rose to almost 400p before falling back to 360p. On a further spike upwards, I doubled my bet at 380p. In the last two weeks the shares have approached 400p again. On Wednesday at 7 a.m, Countrywide issued a trading statement claiming that despite 2005 being the worst year in thirty for housing transactions, Countrywide was on track to meet market expectations for the full year. This came as a complete shock. The average broker earnings per share forecast on Countrywide for 2005 is 12.6p. I expected the share price to rapidly move against me at market opening and leave me with a very tough decision on whether I should cut my losses or stump up more cash to keep my bet open. Fortunately, the market was disappointed by the announcement and the shares fell 1.5% in the first hour of trading. The shares fell further on Friday to 385p to buy. I will move into profit if Countrywide falls below 350p.
In the first half of the year, Countrywide made 1.8p EPS. This isn't a markedly seasonal industry. Countrywide's earnings should be pretty evenly distributed from one half to the next. So how is the estate agent going to make five times as much money in the second half of the year as they did in the first? I'm confident they can't and with the company's largest shareholder currently selling down their holding I expect more of my losses to be recouped before 2005 is out.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
An intermediate logging programme was completed over the Upper Cretaceous interval, above 11,601 feet... Initial interpretation of the data collected indicates the presence of two hydrocarbon bearing sandstones, which are some 500 feet apart. The lower sandstone has a gross thickness of approximately 131 feet of which the upper 33 feet contains a hydrocarbon which, based on the data available so far, appears to be a light oil or a liquids rich gas-condensate. The upper sandstone is 13 feet thick and is currently interpreted to be gas bearing... The intermediate interval logged and described above has examined the Cretaceous above a depth of 11,601 feet. There is potential for other sands to be present in the remaining 2,299 feet (701m) or so of section still to be examined as drilling continues down to the planned total depth of 13,900 feet.
So, on the way down to target depth, Dana has encountered significant oil shows and more could follow soon. It remains to be seen if the discovery made so far will be commercialised but given the well location and the thickness of the hydrocarbon regions encountered my guess would be not. But drilling hasn't reached target depth yet. Next Tuesday's announcement will probably be the most significant Dana has made since I invested over two years ago.
Elsewhere, my large short position, Countrywide, made me suffer a sudoriferous morning yesterday. Since placing my bet in August that Countrywide shares would fall, the share price has moved against me substantially. After first shorting at 328p, the shares rose to almost 400p before falling back to 360p. On a further spike upwards, I doubled my bet at 380p. In the last two weeks the shares have approached 400p again. On Wednesday at 7 a.m, Countrywide issued a trading statement claiming that despite 2005 being the worst year in thirty for housing transactions, Countrywide was on track to meet market expectations for the full year. This came as a complete shock. The average broker earnings per share forecast on Countrywide for 2005 is 12.6p. I expected the share price to rapidly move against me at market opening and leave me with a very tough decision on whether I should cut my losses or stump up more cash to keep my bet open. Fortunately, the market was disappointed by the announcement and the shares fell 1.5% in the first hour of trading. The shares fell further on Friday to 385p to buy. I will move into profit if Countrywide falls below 350p.
In the first half of the year, Countrywide made 1.8p EPS. This isn't a markedly seasonal industry. Countrywide's earnings should be pretty evenly distributed from one half to the next. So how is the estate agent going to make five times as much money in the second half of the year as they did in the first? I'm confident they can't and with the company's largest shareholder currently selling down their holding I expect more of my losses to be recouped before 2005 is out.
The Artful Dodger
Monday, December 12, 2005
Aussie rules force Dana to show hand
Dana is not alone in pursuing oil and gas offshore Mauritania. Several Australian companies are partnering Dana in the ongoing Faucon well, Hardman, Woodside and ROC Oil. Under Australian stock exchange rules, a company currently drilling must make weekly status reports to the stock exchange. This is a level of disclosure I appreciate. It's a shame London's listed oil companies aren't subject to this level of declaration.
Oil exploration is typically a binary exercise. The company either finds oil in commercial quantities or it fails. This makes appraisal especially difficult during drilling. Last week's news, that hydrocarbons have been found at Faucon provides useful information to the valuation process. The chances of a commercial find in Dana's acreage were substantially increased. Let's say, the probability has increased from somwhere between 10% and 75%, to 25% and 80%. Without the Australian weekly reporting requirement, the whole market would still be playing a much larger guessing game, resulting in greater share price volatility. Such volatility would be a bad thing in a company drilling for oil. It creates a misleading market. If the price is rising, speculators could assume oil has been found and race to buy, assuming good news has leaked. The reverse can occur if the shares dive ahead of an announcement.
Tomorrow, Dana's Australian partners will have to submit a status report to the Sydney stock exchange. To save British investors operating at a data disadvantage to their Australian cousins, Dana is also expected to make a statement at 7 a.m. tomorrow. I'll be making certain I'm out of bed for this time and depending on the news, I may even delay my journey to work, should I wish to trade my largest and most rewarding shareholding.
Wish me luck!
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
Oil exploration is typically a binary exercise. The company either finds oil in commercial quantities or it fails. This makes appraisal especially difficult during drilling. Last week's news, that hydrocarbons have been found at Faucon provides useful information to the valuation process. The chances of a commercial find in Dana's acreage were substantially increased. Let's say, the probability has increased from somwhere between 10% and 75%, to 25% and 80%. Without the Australian weekly reporting requirement, the whole market would still be playing a much larger guessing game, resulting in greater share price volatility. Such volatility would be a bad thing in a company drilling for oil. It creates a misleading market. If the price is rising, speculators could assume oil has been found and race to buy, assuming good news has leaked. The reverse can occur if the shares dive ahead of an announcement.
Tomorrow, Dana's Australian partners will have to submit a status report to the Sydney stock exchange. To save British investors operating at a data disadvantage to their Australian cousins, Dana is also expected to make a statement at 7 a.m. tomorrow. I'll be making certain I'm out of bed for this time and depending on the news, I may even delay my journey to work, should I wish to trade my largest and most rewarding shareholding.
Wish me luck!
The Artful Dodger
Thursday, December 08, 2005
Dana hints at success off West Africa
Dana Petroleum, the largest constituent in my portfolio, rose further on Tuesday. The company announced their first well in two years offshore Mauritania had encountered hydrocarbons during drilling.
This is the sort of news I've been waiting for Dana to deliver since buying at 224p in October 2003. Though results announced so far are only preliminary, the anticipation of Dana announcing a large find saw the shares rocket more than 10% higher.
Thus far, Dana has only found the presence of hydrocarbons at Faucon. This could be oil, gas or a mixture of the two. The next two weeks should see more information emerge from Africa on the likelihood this find is of sufficient quality and quantity to be commercially exploited. Good news could see Dana's share price rise to in excess of 1200p. Disappointment could knock the shares back to 850p.
But the whole picture for Dana has improved immensely with this news. Again, this shows that, similar to the find at Pelican in 2003, there are hydrocarbons in Dana's acreage offshore Mauritania. This dramatically increases the prospectivity of a previously unexplored area in which Dana holds a substantial stake. The chances Dana's other prospects in the region will now also be drilled has increased markedly as has the possibility of further investigatory drilling in Pelican.
Even if Faucon is ultimately a disappointment to those speculators buying on Tuesday in the hope of a commercial find, the prospect for substantial rises from this point onward have bought long-term Dana shareholders, like myself, immense cheer.
Fingers crossed for Faucon.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
This is the sort of news I've been waiting for Dana to deliver since buying at 224p in October 2003. Though results announced so far are only preliminary, the anticipation of Dana announcing a large find saw the shares rocket more than 10% higher.
Thus far, Dana has only found the presence of hydrocarbons at Faucon. This could be oil, gas or a mixture of the two. The next two weeks should see more information emerge from Africa on the likelihood this find is of sufficient quality and quantity to be commercially exploited. Good news could see Dana's share price rise to in excess of 1200p. Disappointment could knock the shares back to 850p.
But the whole picture for Dana has improved immensely with this news. Again, this shows that, similar to the find at Pelican in 2003, there are hydrocarbons in Dana's acreage offshore Mauritania. This dramatically increases the prospectivity of a previously unexplored area in which Dana holds a substantial stake. The chances Dana's other prospects in the region will now also be drilled has increased markedly as has the possibility of further investigatory drilling in Pelican.
Even if Faucon is ultimately a disappointment to those speculators buying on Tuesday in the hope of a commercial find, the prospect for substantial rises from this point onward have bought long-term Dana shareholders, like myself, immense cheer.
Fingers crossed for Faucon.
The Artful Dodger
Sunday, December 04, 2005
Countrywide short starts to squeeze
In August I opened a spread-bet on Countrywide, the FTSE250-listed national estate agent. I bet, via a financial bookmaker that the company's shares would fall from their value at the time of 328p. Rather than fall, the shares rose steadily to almost 400p in September. The shares fell back slightly and I recently doubled my bet at 380p.
On Friday, Countrywide shares closed at 395p to buy, leaving me well out of the money and needing to provide my account with a capital injection.
With broker forecasts for the year at around 12p EPS, the shares trade at a very expensive price-to-earnings ratio around 31. That's too expensive for this type of cyclical business. Countrywide is in the first year of declining earnings and managed to make a meagre 1.8p per share in the first half of the year. Official statistics from the British Land Registry confirmed that property transactions in the third quarter of 2005 were 15% down on 2004's figures. Countrywide's area of operations continues to worsen. So why do brokers think the company will make five times as much in the second half of the year as they did in the first six months? And why have the shares continued to rise, despite the news in the market and the recent sales from their largest shareholder?
Those are academic points. Fact is, I will have to bolster my account tomorrow a.m. and I have got this one badly wrong so far.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
On Friday, Countrywide shares closed at 395p to buy, leaving me well out of the money and needing to provide my account with a capital injection.
With broker forecasts for the year at around 12p EPS, the shares trade at a very expensive price-to-earnings ratio around 31. That's too expensive for this type of cyclical business. Countrywide is in the first year of declining earnings and managed to make a meagre 1.8p per share in the first half of the year. Official statistics from the British Land Registry confirmed that property transactions in the third quarter of 2005 were 15% down on 2004's figures. Countrywide's area of operations continues to worsen. So why do brokers think the company will make five times as much in the second half of the year as they did in the first six months? And why have the shares continued to rise, despite the news in the market and the recent sales from their largest shareholder?
Those are academic points. Fact is, I will have to bolster my account tomorrow a.m. and I have got this one badly wrong so far.
The Artful Dodger
