Monday, January 01, 2007
Result for 2006: -1%
Well, a hugely disappointing year has ended. Performance for the year has been hammered by the failure of my investment in Invox, whose name I never want to hear again. Without this loss I would have been looking at an approximate gain of 15%.
Returns for the year were depressed further in December. Soco International, my largest holding announced positive drilling results but to my astonishment the price fell back.
The biggest disappointment of December, however, came from nCipher (LSE:NCH), who released a rather predictable trading statement releasing more bad news from the disastrous Abridean acquisition of 2005.
it is now clear that Abridean's business has developed considerably more slowly than anticipated. The Board believes that this pattern is likely to continue in 2007 and therefore now considers it likely that the achievement of breakeven by Abridean will take significantly longer than previously expected. However, the Board remains confident that nCipher will continue to grow in 2007 and beyond...nCipher's revenue for the full year ending 31 December 2006 will be slightly lower than expected.
nCipher's board has proved itself incapable of successfully managing an acquisition. Given the company still holds a substantial cash pile but management cannot be trusted to spend it. This cash will now have to be returned to shareholders in 2007, which could bring about a revision to the shareprice in an upwards direction.
I recently entered an uncharacteristic speculation on shares in Newcastle United. The north-east based football club (there's a clue in the name) is in takeover talks with a number of suitors and I expect a deal to go through at a price around 90p. The shares can currently be bought for 80p. My edge here is that the information and understading in the public domain but away from London-based fund managers is superior. All local newspapers and football commentators consider this a done deal. That's been the case for the last two weeks, but I expect a deal to conclude in early 2007.
My portfolio for the end of the year thus looks like this:
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (95p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (95p)
NCipher, 25/04/2006 at 233.5p (250p)
SOCO International, 13/03/2006 at 869.5p (1382p)
Newcastle United, 18/12/2006 at 80p (80p)
+ cash holdings
I also recently closed my Carphone Warehouse short position after Vodafone unexpectedly backtracked on the termination of a sales contract. Bah humbug.
Bring on 2007, RNS announcements will appear from 7 a.m. tomorrow.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
Returns for the year were depressed further in December. Soco International, my largest holding announced positive drilling results but to my astonishment the price fell back.
The biggest disappointment of December, however, came from nCipher (LSE:NCH), who released a rather predictable trading statement releasing more bad news from the disastrous Abridean acquisition of 2005.
it is now clear that Abridean's business has developed considerably more slowly than anticipated. The Board believes that this pattern is likely to continue in 2007 and therefore now considers it likely that the achievement of breakeven by Abridean will take significantly longer than previously expected. However, the Board remains confident that nCipher will continue to grow in 2007 and beyond...nCipher's revenue for the full year ending 31 December 2006 will be slightly lower than expected.
nCipher's board has proved itself incapable of successfully managing an acquisition. Given the company still holds a substantial cash pile but management cannot be trusted to spend it. This cash will now have to be returned to shareholders in 2007, which could bring about a revision to the shareprice in an upwards direction.
I recently entered an uncharacteristic speculation on shares in Newcastle United. The north-east based football club (there's a clue in the name) is in takeover talks with a number of suitors and I expect a deal to go through at a price around 90p. The shares can currently be bought for 80p. My edge here is that the information and understading in the public domain but away from London-based fund managers is superior. All local newspapers and football commentators consider this a done deal. That's been the case for the last two weeks, but I expect a deal to conclude in early 2007.
My portfolio for the end of the year thus looks like this:
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (95p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (95p)
NCipher, 25/04/2006 at 233.5p (250p)
SOCO International, 13/03/2006 at 869.5p (1382p)
Newcastle United, 18/12/2006 at 80p (80p)
+ cash holdings
I also recently closed my Carphone Warehouse short position after Vodafone unexpectedly backtracked on the termination of a sales contract. Bah humbug.
Bring on 2007, RNS announcements will appear from 7 a.m. tomorrow.
The Artful Dodger
