Wednesday, November 30, 2005
November ends, +49% YTD
Portfolio returns at the market close today stood at +49% for the year to date. But seeing as no-one ever posts a comment here or emails me, I'm not sure I can be bothered saying how I did it! I'll let the numbers do the talking.
As at October 31st, 2005:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (52.75p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (52.75p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/2003 at 223.75p (823p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (28.5p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (28.5p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (114p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (114p)
+ cash holdings
versus today's values:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (60.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (60.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/2003 at 223.75p (917p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (28.5p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (28.5p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (104p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (104p)
+ cash holdings
The Artful Dodger
(1) comments
As at October 31st, 2005:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (52.75p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (52.75p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/2003 at 223.75p (823p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (28.5p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (28.5p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (114p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (114p)
+ cash holdings
versus today's values:
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/2003 at 42.88p (60.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (60.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/2003 at 223.75p (917p)
SVB, 12/04/2005 at 24.12p (28.5p)
SVB, 13/09/2005 at 26.75p (28.5p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/2005 at 112.5p (104p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/2005 at 111.5p (104p)
+ cash holdings
The Artful Dodger
+49% - Well done! It is something of which you should rightly be proud. I also hold most of the shares you hold, but also 50+ others! Perhaps, I'll start my own blog on this soon.
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# posted by 
: 12:55 AM
: 12:55 AMTuesday, November 22, 2005
Fayrewood takeover talks collapse
Earlier this year my portfolio was boosted on the announcement that Fayrewood, the IT hardware distributor had been approached by a party interested in buying out current shareholders. Today the company announced no takeover would be happening and the shares fell 5% on confirmation no big walleted corporation would be making an offer.
This is the second time in 2005 that a company in my portfolio has seen takeover talks scrapped and remained independent. On both occasions it has proved damaging to returns. In July, Chaucer announced talks with Amlin were off and the shares fells from 70p at the height of takeover speculation to 52p in the aftermath of Katrina.
Not selling Chaucer in the high 60s was a huge mistake. At the time, the shares easily exceeded my estimate of fair value and a number of opportunities to reinvest the money elsewhere were missed. With Fayrewood however, the market was never particularly excited by the discussions and the shares never got near my target sell price. So, I probably got Fayrewood about right but Chaucer wrong.
With today's disappointing news, Fayrewood announced continued strong trading and the promise to significantly increase the shareholder dividend. This helped put a floor on the shares and they closed the day 4.5p lower at 107p to sell.
Chaucer, on the other hand, is revelling in the market's new found faith in insurers' profitability. 2005's exceptionally severe hurricane season has set the industry up for a prolonged period of higher premiums, just as rates were starting to fall from cyclical highs and all expected an insurance recession, profitability is increasing in the wake of Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
This is the second time in 2005 that a company in my portfolio has seen takeover talks scrapped and remained independent. On both occasions it has proved damaging to returns. In July, Chaucer announced talks with Amlin were off and the shares fells from 70p at the height of takeover speculation to 52p in the aftermath of Katrina.
Not selling Chaucer in the high 60s was a huge mistake. At the time, the shares easily exceeded my estimate of fair value and a number of opportunities to reinvest the money elsewhere were missed. With Fayrewood however, the market was never particularly excited by the discussions and the shares never got near my target sell price. So, I probably got Fayrewood about right but Chaucer wrong.
With today's disappointing news, Fayrewood announced continued strong trading and the promise to significantly increase the shareholder dividend. This helped put a floor on the shares and they closed the day 4.5p lower at 107p to sell.
Chaucer, on the other hand, is revelling in the market's new found faith in insurers' profitability. 2005's exceptionally severe hurricane season has set the industry up for a prolonged period of higher premiums, just as rates were starting to fall from cyclical highs and all expected an insurance recession, profitability is increasing in the wake of Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
The Artful Dodger
Sunday, November 13, 2005
Less than two months to go
I wonder how I'll score this year. I won't be chasing a target. Encouragingly it looks as though 2004's +14% performance will easily be beaten.
November could see some significant newsflow. The Fayrewood takeover talks are continuing and must surely be progressing toward resolution. SVB will announce its Syndicate Forecasts and Dana is currently drilling in the North Sea. I think the effects of disappointment with Fayrewood and SVB is much less than for Dana. Though currently in talks, Fayrewood is trading at nothing like a bid premium, the excited level speculators normally drive a share to it's announced the company is in play and SVB is on a crushingly cheap valuation that assumes a scenario approaching the worst case.
Dana, on the other hand, has recently suffered from a falling oil price and needs to prove that it is a serious petroleum explorer and that means drilling its Faucon prospect offshore Mauritania. But Dana has subjected its shareholders to a litany of procastination over the Faucon drill. Recently, the company announced drilling would commence in November but later was only happy to confirm the schedule as 'third quarter'. To my mind, this means December at the earliest. Pity. A successful drill at Faucon could send Dana's shareprice sharply higher but with each subsequent delay, the market opinion that Dana just isn't one of the big boys is strengthened further.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
November could see some significant newsflow. The Fayrewood takeover talks are continuing and must surely be progressing toward resolution. SVB will announce its Syndicate Forecasts and Dana is currently drilling in the North Sea. I think the effects of disappointment with Fayrewood and SVB is much less than for Dana. Though currently in talks, Fayrewood is trading at nothing like a bid premium, the excited level speculators normally drive a share to it's announced the company is in play and SVB is on a crushingly cheap valuation that assumes a scenario approaching the worst case.
Dana, on the other hand, has recently suffered from a falling oil price and needs to prove that it is a serious petroleum explorer and that means drilling its Faucon prospect offshore Mauritania. But Dana has subjected its shareholders to a litany of procastination over the Faucon drill. Recently, the company announced drilling would commence in November but later was only happy to confirm the schedule as 'third quarter'. To my mind, this means December at the earliest. Pity. A successful drill at Faucon could send Dana's shareprice sharply higher but with each subsequent delay, the market opinion that Dana just isn't one of the big boys is strengthened further.
The Artful Dodger
