Sunday, July 31, 2005
July: Fayrewood losses dent portfolio. +33% ytd
July has seen my portfolio suffer. The news that takeover talks at Chaucer were over hit the shares badly, falling from the highs reached when talks were announced to end the month at 59.5p. My largest holding in computer distributor Fayrewood has fallen back from my average buy price of 111p to 102p.
Brighter spots came from Dana Petroleum, soaring to a new high of 687p and SVB reaching 30p.
Fayrewood announces interim results on August 24th. 29% of my portfolio is riding on Fayrewood. The broker expectations are for annual profits worth 17p per share. That puts Fayrewood at today's price on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6. That's less than half the market average. A PE ratio of less than half the market average for a company expected to increase profits over the next two full years is a gaping dislocation from fair value. If Fayrewood announces results that can reassure the market on the prescience of those 17p estimates, the shares would rise very quickly indeed from curent levels.
Another company announcing interims in August is Ben Bailey. The housebuilder's shares, like Fayrewood, are dirt cheap. The sector has suffered of late, with other players warning of tougher trading and declining profitability. The numbers from Ben Bailey will be important in deciding any price move but the trading statement will be vital.
As of July 6th:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (457p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (65p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (65p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (685.5p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (106p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (106p)
+ cash holdings
and today's market prices:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (435p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (59.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (59.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (687p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (30p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (102p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (102p)
+ cash holdings
Broad falls across the portfolio have been softened by SVB's 20% rise. Ben Bailey and Fayrewood results will have a huge bearing on portfolio performance, as will the oncoming Atlantic hurricane season.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
Brighter spots came from Dana Petroleum, soaring to a new high of 687p and SVB reaching 30p.
Fayrewood announces interim results on August 24th. 29% of my portfolio is riding on Fayrewood. The broker expectations are for annual profits worth 17p per share. That puts Fayrewood at today's price on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6. That's less than half the market average. A PE ratio of less than half the market average for a company expected to increase profits over the next two full years is a gaping dislocation from fair value. If Fayrewood announces results that can reassure the market on the prescience of those 17p estimates, the shares would rise very quickly indeed from curent levels.
Another company announcing interims in August is Ben Bailey. The housebuilder's shares, like Fayrewood, are dirt cheap. The sector has suffered of late, with other players warning of tougher trading and declining profitability. The numbers from Ben Bailey will be important in deciding any price move but the trading statement will be vital.
As of July 6th:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (457p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (65p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (65p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (685.5p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (106p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (106p)
+ cash holdings
and today's market prices:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (435p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (59.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (59.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (687p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (30p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (102p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (102p)
+ cash holdings
Broad falls across the portfolio have been softened by SVB's 20% rise. Ben Bailey and Fayrewood results will have a huge bearing on portfolio performance, as will the oncoming Atlantic hurricane season.
The Artful Dodger
Thursday, July 28, 2005
SVB makes up for losses elsewhere
As I've said previously, SVB entered July with the potential to appreciate substantially. They've responded well, rallying another 7% today to reach 30p to sell versus my April buy price of 24.12p. My portfolio badly needed the rise from its smallest constituent. Recent falls iin the value of Fayrewood, Ben Bailey and Chaucer have put a severe dent in returns for the year so far. Barring extraordinary trading tomorrow, it appears as though July will be a losing month for my portfolio.
I harbour high hopes for August however. Ben Bailey, which is extremely cheap at 437p, will announce interim results on August 2nd. Fayrewood announces interims on August 24th. On the other hand, the hurricane season in the Atlantic will begin to take shape. The magnitude of this year's storms will sway market perceptions on the profitability of insurers such as Chaucer and SVB.
Newswise, July has been a quiet month. August outcome will play a huge part in the returns I will make in 2005.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
I harbour high hopes for August however. Ben Bailey, which is extremely cheap at 437p, will announce interim results on August 2nd. Fayrewood announces interims on August 24th. On the other hand, the hurricane season in the Atlantic will begin to take shape. The magnitude of this year's storms will sway market perceptions on the profitability of insurers such as Chaucer and SVB.
Newswise, July has been a quiet month. August outcome will play a huge part in the returns I will make in 2005.
The Artful Dodger
Sunday, July 24, 2005
Chaucer slumps as Amlin walk away
Amlin have announced they are not interested in buying Chaucer. As expected, Chaucer fell back sharply on the news and on Friday stood at 60p to sell. A few weeks ago they were as high as 69p, buoyed by the bid speculation.
This has dealt a real blow to my returns. Prior to the news, Chaucer made up 21% of my portfolio.
Though the takeover was aborted, dashing any hopes of a deal at 70p+, cofirmation that Amlin was interested forced market observers to get their calculators out again and price up Chaucer. And it seems they have decided Chaucer deserves a higher price than was assumed throughout 2004. For much of last year Chaucer malingered at around 48p, dipping to 40p during the Atlantic hurricane season. With hurricanes beginning to strike again, I'm worried Chaucer could slump again - further delaying any advance to my calculated fair value of 66p.
One positive to emerge recently has been from SVB, my portfolio's smallest constituent. The insurers shares have advanced handsomely, leaping a huge 9% in trading on Friday. The shares now stand 16% above my April buy price of 24.12p. I expect more soon as the interim results approach.
Interims are also expected soon from the housebuilder Ben Bailey. Builders have been complaining recently of a much tougher market, with both house prices and completions falling. At 437p Ben Bailey remains way too cheap, with strong interims and decreasing interest rates expected, will the company finally get the recognition it deserves?
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
This has dealt a real blow to my returns. Prior to the news, Chaucer made up 21% of my portfolio.
Though the takeover was aborted, dashing any hopes of a deal at 70p+, cofirmation that Amlin was interested forced market observers to get their calculators out again and price up Chaucer. And it seems they have decided Chaucer deserves a higher price than was assumed throughout 2004. For much of last year Chaucer malingered at around 48p, dipping to 40p during the Atlantic hurricane season. With hurricanes beginning to strike again, I'm worried Chaucer could slump again - further delaying any advance to my calculated fair value of 66p.
One positive to emerge recently has been from SVB, my portfolio's smallest constituent. The insurers shares have advanced handsomely, leaping a huge 9% in trading on Friday. The shares now stand 16% above my April buy price of 24.12p. I expect more soon as the interim results approach.
Interims are also expected soon from the housebuilder Ben Bailey. Builders have been complaining recently of a much tougher market, with both house prices and completions falling. At 437p Ben Bailey remains way too cheap, with strong interims and decreasing interest rates expected, will the company finally get the recognition it deserves?
The Artful Dodger
Thursday, July 07, 2005
Bombings hit portfolio hard
In case no-one had told you, today London was hit by a series of terrorist bombs. At the last count, 37 have died. Though saddened and appalled by what has happened, the purpose of this blog is to document my investment strategy and escapades. So that is what I will be doing today.
News of the disaster precipitated wide falls across the market and my portfolio. My two largest positions, Dana Petroleum and Fayrewood were off 7% and 5% respectively at one point. Chaucer was hit hard along with the rest of the insurance sector, though SVB escaped mark-downs. All recovered slightly throughout the day. Frustratingly, if my position in Fayrewood was not so top-heavy already I would have purchased more shares an the incredibly low price of 102p. But Fayrewood already makes up around 30% of my portfolio, it would be too risky to purchase more. That said, recent advances in Dana Petroleum, Chaucer and Ben Bailey have all reduced my exposure to Fayrewood. I may indeed be a buyer of more shares tomorrow.
Despite the tragic events of today, my life savings still need to be invested where they will produce the best return. So that's what I'll continue strive toward.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
News of the disaster precipitated wide falls across the market and my portfolio. My two largest positions, Dana Petroleum and Fayrewood were off 7% and 5% respectively at one point. Chaucer was hit hard along with the rest of the insurance sector, though SVB escaped mark-downs. All recovered slightly throughout the day. Frustratingly, if my position in Fayrewood was not so top-heavy already I would have purchased more shares an the incredibly low price of 102p. But Fayrewood already makes up around 30% of my portfolio, it would be too risky to purchase more. That said, recent advances in Dana Petroleum, Chaucer and Ben Bailey have all reduced my exposure to Fayrewood. I may indeed be a buyer of more shares tomorrow.
Despite the tragic events of today, my life savings still need to be invested where they will produce the best return. So that's what I'll continue strive toward.
The Artful Dodger
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Dividends and Dana push returns to +34%
Since the last portfolio review I've received sizeable dividends from Chaucer and Ben Bailey. Unfortunately, my largest holding, Fayrewood, has slipped back slightly, as has SVB.
This has been more than made up for by Dana Petroleum's advances. With the oil price continuing to surge, Dana have advanced from 513p at the end of May to a dizzying 685.5p today. That's more than triple my purchase price, 223.75p in 2003. This makes Dana the most successful investment in my portfolio, by some distance. Chaucer has also advanced significantly on bid news.
at 31st May:
Portfolio standing
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (442p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (57p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (57p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (513p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (433p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (109p)
+ cash holdings
versus the close of play in London today:
Portfolio standing
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (457p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (65p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (65p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (685.5p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (106p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (106p)
+ cash holdings
Return for the year to date +34%
Though June's gains were fantastic, I fancy further advances could be made in July. SVB and Fayrewood are excruciatingly undervalued and could still advance significantly. In addition, the board at Chaucer have already told the market to expect a further announcement on the takeover talks in July. The shares, though approximately fairly valued, sit on a knife edge. If Chaucer rejects the overtures of Amlin, the shares could fall sharply back to the pre-bid price, in the mid-50s. On the other hand, if a bid was accepted, I'd expect the shares to advance past 70p.
Plenty to look forward to in July.
The Artful Dodger
(0) comments
This has been more than made up for by Dana Petroleum's advances. With the oil price continuing to surge, Dana have advanced from 513p at the end of May to a dizzying 685.5p today. That's more than triple my purchase price, 223.75p in 2003. This makes Dana the most successful investment in my portfolio, by some distance. Chaucer has also advanced significantly on bid news.
at 31st May:
Portfolio standing
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (442p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (57p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (57p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (513p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (433p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (109p)
+ cash holdings
versus the close of play in London today:
Portfolio standing
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (457p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (65p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (65p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (685.5p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (106p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (106p)
+ cash holdings
Return for the year to date +34%
Though June's gains were fantastic, I fancy further advances could be made in July. SVB and Fayrewood are excruciatingly undervalued and could still advance significantly. In addition, the board at Chaucer have already told the market to expect a further announcement on the takeover talks in July. The shares, though approximately fairly valued, sit on a knife edge. If Chaucer rejects the overtures of Amlin, the shares could fall sharply back to the pre-bid price, in the mid-50s. On the other hand, if a bid was accepted, I'd expect the shares to advance past 70p.
Plenty to look forward to in July.
The Artful Dodger
