Sunday, July 31, 2005
July: Fayrewood losses dent portfolio. +33% ytd
July has seen my portfolio suffer. The news that takeover talks at Chaucer were over hit the shares badly, falling from the highs reached when talks were announced to end the month at 59.5p. My largest holding in computer distributor Fayrewood has fallen back from my average buy price of 111p to 102p.
Brighter spots came from Dana Petroleum, soaring to a new high of 687p and SVB reaching 30p.
Fayrewood announces interim results on August 24th. 29% of my portfolio is riding on Fayrewood. The broker expectations are for annual profits worth 17p per share. That puts Fayrewood at today's price on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6. That's less than half the market average. A PE ratio of less than half the market average for a company expected to increase profits over the next two full years is a gaping dislocation from fair value. If Fayrewood announces results that can reassure the market on the prescience of those 17p estimates, the shares would rise very quickly indeed from curent levels.
Another company announcing interims in August is Ben Bailey. The housebuilder's shares, like Fayrewood, are dirt cheap. The sector has suffered of late, with other players warning of tougher trading and declining profitability. The numbers from Ben Bailey will be important in deciding any price move but the trading statement will be vital.
As of July 6th:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (457p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (65p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (65p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (685.5p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (106p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (106p)
+ cash holdings
and today's market prices:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (435p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (59.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (59.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (687p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (30p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (102p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (102p)
+ cash holdings
Broad falls across the portfolio have been softened by SVB's 20% rise. Ben Bailey and Fayrewood results will have a huge bearing on portfolio performance, as will the oncoming Atlantic hurricane season.
The Artful Dodger
Brighter spots came from Dana Petroleum, soaring to a new high of 687p and SVB reaching 30p.
Fayrewood announces interim results on August 24th. 29% of my portfolio is riding on Fayrewood. The broker expectations are for annual profits worth 17p per share. That puts Fayrewood at today's price on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6. That's less than half the market average. A PE ratio of less than half the market average for a company expected to increase profits over the next two full years is a gaping dislocation from fair value. If Fayrewood announces results that can reassure the market on the prescience of those 17p estimates, the shares would rise very quickly indeed from curent levels.
Another company announcing interims in August is Ben Bailey. The housebuilder's shares, like Fayrewood, are dirt cheap. The sector has suffered of late, with other players warning of tougher trading and declining profitability. The numbers from Ben Bailey will be important in deciding any price move but the trading statement will be vital.
As of July 6th:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (457p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (65p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (65p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (685.5p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (25p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (106p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (106p)
+ cash holdings
and today's market prices:
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (435p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (59.5p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (59.5p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (687p)
SVB, 12/04/05 at 24.12p (30p)
Fayrewood, 15/04/05 at 112.5p (102p)
Fayrewood, 19/04/05 at 111.5p (102p)
+ cash holdings
Broad falls across the portfolio have been softened by SVB's 20% rise. Ben Bailey and Fayrewood results will have a huge bearing on portfolio performance, as will the oncoming Atlantic hurricane season.
The Artful Dodger
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