Sunday, November 13, 2005
Less than two months to go
I wonder how I'll score this year. I won't be chasing a target. Encouragingly it looks as though 2004's +14% performance will easily be beaten.
November could see some significant newsflow. The Fayrewood takeover talks are continuing and must surely be progressing toward resolution. SVB will announce its Syndicate Forecasts and Dana is currently drilling in the North Sea. I think the effects of disappointment with Fayrewood and SVB is much less than for Dana. Though currently in talks, Fayrewood is trading at nothing like a bid premium, the excited level speculators normally drive a share to it's announced the company is in play and SVB is on a crushingly cheap valuation that assumes a scenario approaching the worst case.
Dana, on the other hand, has recently suffered from a falling oil price and needs to prove that it is a serious petroleum explorer and that means drilling its Faucon prospect offshore Mauritania. But Dana has subjected its shareholders to a litany of procastination over the Faucon drill. Recently, the company announced drilling would commence in November but later was only happy to confirm the schedule as 'third quarter'. To my mind, this means December at the earliest. Pity. A successful drill at Faucon could send Dana's shareprice sharply higher but with each subsequent delay, the market opinion that Dana just isn't one of the big boys is strengthened further.
The Artful Dodger
November could see some significant newsflow. The Fayrewood takeover talks are continuing and must surely be progressing toward resolution. SVB will announce its Syndicate Forecasts and Dana is currently drilling in the North Sea. I think the effects of disappointment with Fayrewood and SVB is much less than for Dana. Though currently in talks, Fayrewood is trading at nothing like a bid premium, the excited level speculators normally drive a share to it's announced the company is in play and SVB is on a crushingly cheap valuation that assumes a scenario approaching the worst case.
Dana, on the other hand, has recently suffered from a falling oil price and needs to prove that it is a serious petroleum explorer and that means drilling its Faucon prospect offshore Mauritania. But Dana has subjected its shareholders to a litany of procastination over the Faucon drill. Recently, the company announced drilling would commence in November but later was only happy to confirm the schedule as 'third quarter'. To my mind, this means December at the earliest. Pity. A successful drill at Faucon could send Dana's shareprice sharply higher but with each subsequent delay, the market opinion that Dana just isn't one of the big boys is strengthened further.
The Artful Dodger
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