Saturday, February 21, 2004
Long time no blog. Since last writing, the portfolio has been buoyed with the rise in my house-building share, Ben Bailey. Now at 480p, this has been an astonishing success since my purchase at 178p of January 2003. The game could soon be up for Mr Bailey however, the shares being at the closest to being fully valued that they ever have. Full year results will be announced on March 2nd and I'll be selling at six times earnings if I can get it. Ben Bailey was forced to update the market back in December that earnings for the year would be ahead of expectations, which at the time were running at around 80p per share. Assuming the results will be fifteen percent ahead of that figure, it is not too difficult to see Ben Bailey trading at in excess of five pounds in March.
The next two months are going to be a crucial time for the portfolio, with all holdings reporting results for the full year. Chaucer reports on April 4th and Dana Petroleum at some point between the two. This could leave me with a real problem, if the price of my holdings adjusts to what I consider a fair valuation against the results, I could be shareless. It's vital then, that I find some new targets. I have already run the rule over Tate and Lyle and Shell. A third company of interest is SVB, another Lloyd's insurer trading at an even larger discount to net assets than Chaucer. I'm holding fire on that one for the moment however - I wouldn't like to be doubly exposed to insurance underwriters, as an extraordinary blow could be dealt at any time. Another consideration is a short-selling of Berkeley, the south east based house-builder.
So, keep watching this space.
The Artful Dodger
The next two months are going to be a crucial time for the portfolio, with all holdings reporting results for the full year. Chaucer reports on April 4th and Dana Petroleum at some point between the two. This could leave me with a real problem, if the price of my holdings adjusts to what I consider a fair valuation against the results, I could be shareless. It's vital then, that I find some new targets. I have already run the rule over Tate and Lyle and Shell. A third company of interest is SVB, another Lloyd's insurer trading at an even larger discount to net assets than Chaucer. I'm holding fire on that one for the moment however - I wouldn't like to be doubly exposed to insurance underwriters, as an extraordinary blow could be dealt at any time. Another consideration is a short-selling of Berkeley, the south east based house-builder.
So, keep watching this space.
The Artful Dodger
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