Monday, September 27, 2004
Judgement of September. Final chapter: Dana
Last Friday, Dana announced interim results have been brought forward to tomorrow, Tuesday 28th September.
No reason was given but discussion board members at The Motley Fool were quick to speculate, the more cogent thread contributions argued:
A deal on Tuesday?
SirLurkalot
I see hardly any reason why Dana would choose to announce its results on Tuesday, and yet do the analyst presentation on Thursday. That's almost unheard of, to me.
What reasons could there possible be for this unusual arrangement? One reason that jumps out is that there's a deal they want to announce, that needs to get got out quickly for fear of it leaking if they try to hold up announcing it until Thursday.
emptyend
That is exactly my conclusion! However, the timing won't be as much about the risk of a leak, as the need to announce it simultaneously with another company [who I suspect may be in a different timezone?).
SirLurkalot
Couldn't the other party be down under? So announcement c.10pm UK time Monday night shortly before Sydney trading via asx.com.au, followed by announcement 7am UK time Tuesday morning on uk-wire?
davjo
...Hardanaman Petroleum (or HD Resources) has a kinda nice ring to it ;-) Combining some decent N.Sea cashflow with W.African explo/development would seem a pretty good marriage. Such a merger wouldn't look terribly different from the resultant successful re-structuring of PMO -- good core c/f, early development prospects and loads of explo.
emtpyend
I think the chance of such a late change isn't what the delay's about: I think that one of the deals under discussion has finally crystallised....which is why the date was originally delayed from the 23rd when it became clear it wouldn't quite get done by that date. The advancing of the results to Tuesday is, IMO, at least 60% certain to be driven by a need to coordinate with the other party....with the other 40% being down to the convenience of a Monday signing once the lawyers have finished a busy weekend.
....as to who the other party might be, there are clearly a vast range of possibilities, including USA and Australia.
emptyend
I doubt very much that it is a UK player. I suspect that if there is a big deal announced [which we are assuming on the basis of assembling snippets of gossip and half-truths and little more!] then it will involve a larger company trading a large parcel of North Sea assets to Dana....which, incidentally, would explain why they didn't participate in the latest round. Such a company would, I guess, be non-UK, but I don't rule anything out.
And, reverting to the general point about the results, I would certainly be hoping to see some unambiguous [;-)] clarity about drilling plans in Mauritania and Kenya.....because that's the bit which I think remains greatly undervalued by the market......
thegreatgeraldo
IF the suspected deal was a merger/takeover , surely they wouldn't bother waiting until Tuesday ? If it's agreed , why wait & maybe cause a bit of a false market in the shares on Monday ? So assuming there is a deal , my money's on an asset sale/purchase/swap. Next stop is to consider what Dana might want to dispose of. Obvious candidates are Indonesia (THE obvious one , IMFO , as the next step there is to start spending on developement) , after that , I'd be surprised if they turned down a decent offer for South Vatoskoye (spelling ?) , plus of course , any decent farm-in offers should be considered WRT Mauritania.
The obvious buyer of Dana's Indonesian interest is Hess...
KevDean
Could this be the answer?
From olive blossom on Hot Copper:
"Hardman – results preview
Hardman Resources reports results for the year to 30th June 2004 on
TUESDAY 28th SEPTEMBER....
emptyend
Maybe, just maybe, it IS to do with Hardman? And Woodside perhaps?
But neither have North Sea assets [do they?] - and I'm fairly sure that we're looking mainly at a swap of assets.
Not long to wait to find out, of course. I'd personally think that a DNX/HRD tie-up was a great idea IF they could sort the management issues! I'd expect both the share prices to rally if there was such news too..
Well, as of 10 p.m. Greenwich Mean Time, there has been no announcement from Hardman Resources to the Australian Stock Exchange, or from Dana Petroleum. I'll be rising early for the last time this month to check the newswires at 7 a.m. tomorrow.
With Dana shares riding high at 373p a positive announcement is expected by the market, either on earnings, corporate activity, or both. Dana comprises 24% of my portfolio following Ben Bailey's recent setbacks.
Fingers crossed for good news tomorrow, my pocket needs it.
The Artful Dodger
No reason was given but discussion board members at The Motley Fool were quick to speculate, the more cogent thread contributions argued:
A deal on Tuesday?
The Motley Fool, Dana Petroleum Discussion board
SirLurkalot
I see hardly any reason why Dana would choose to announce its results on Tuesday, and yet do the analyst presentation on Thursday. That's almost unheard of, to me.
What reasons could there possible be for this unusual arrangement? One reason that jumps out is that there's a deal they want to announce, that needs to get got out quickly for fear of it leaking if they try to hold up announcing it until Thursday.
emptyend
That is exactly my conclusion! However, the timing won't be as much about the risk of a leak, as the need to announce it simultaneously with another company [who I suspect may be in a different timezone?).
SirLurkalot
Couldn't the other party be down under? So announcement c.10pm UK time Monday night shortly before Sydney trading via asx.com.au, followed by announcement 7am UK time Tuesday morning on uk-wire?
davjo
...Hardanaman Petroleum (or HD Resources) has a kinda nice ring to it ;-) Combining some decent N.Sea cashflow with W.African explo/development would seem a pretty good marriage. Such a merger wouldn't look terribly different from the resultant successful re-structuring of PMO -- good core c/f, early development prospects and loads of explo.
emtpyend
I think the chance of such a late change isn't what the delay's about: I think that one of the deals under discussion has finally crystallised....which is why the date was originally delayed from the 23rd when it became clear it wouldn't quite get done by that date. The advancing of the results to Tuesday is, IMO, at least 60% certain to be driven by a need to coordinate with the other party....with the other 40% being down to the convenience of a Monday signing once the lawyers have finished a busy weekend.
....as to who the other party might be, there are clearly a vast range of possibilities, including USA and Australia.
emptyend
I doubt very much that it is a UK player. I suspect that if there is a big deal announced [which we are assuming on the basis of assembling snippets of gossip and half-truths and little more!] then it will involve a larger company trading a large parcel of North Sea assets to Dana....which, incidentally, would explain why they didn't participate in the latest round. Such a company would, I guess, be non-UK, but I don't rule anything out.
And, reverting to the general point about the results, I would certainly be hoping to see some unambiguous [;-)] clarity about drilling plans in Mauritania and Kenya.....because that's the bit which I think remains greatly undervalued by the market......
thegreatgeraldo
IF the suspected deal was a merger/takeover , surely they wouldn't bother waiting until Tuesday ? If it's agreed , why wait & maybe cause a bit of a false market in the shares on Monday ? So assuming there is a deal , my money's on an asset sale/purchase/swap. Next stop is to consider what Dana might want to dispose of. Obvious candidates are Indonesia (THE obvious one , IMFO , as the next step there is to start spending on developement) , after that , I'd be surprised if they turned down a decent offer for South Vatoskoye (spelling ?) , plus of course , any decent farm-in offers should be considered WRT Mauritania.
The obvious buyer of Dana's Indonesian interest is Hess...
KevDean
Could this be the answer?
From olive blossom on Hot Copper:
"Hardman – results preview
Hardman Resources reports results for the year to 30th June 2004 on
TUESDAY 28th SEPTEMBER....
emptyend
Maybe, just maybe, it IS to do with Hardman? And Woodside perhaps?
But neither have North Sea assets [do they?] - and I'm fairly sure that we're looking mainly at a swap of assets.
Not long to wait to find out, of course. I'd personally think that a DNX/HRD tie-up was a great idea IF they could sort the management issues! I'd expect both the share prices to rally if there was such news too..
Well, as of 10 p.m. Greenwich Mean Time, there has been no announcement from Hardman Resources to the Australian Stock Exchange, or from Dana Petroleum. I'll be rising early for the last time this month to check the newswires at 7 a.m. tomorrow.
With Dana shares riding high at 373p a positive announcement is expected by the market, either on earnings, corporate activity, or both. Dana comprises 24% of my portfolio following Ben Bailey's recent setbacks.
Fingers crossed for good news tomorrow, my pocket needs it.
The Artful Dodger
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