Saturday, October 23, 2004
Dana pushes gains for 2004 beyond 10%
Friday bought scenes of stifled celebration at Dodger central as Dana Petroleum inspired my portfolio to a value ten percent higher than at the start of the year. Chaucer and Ben Bailey have also both recovered from their nadir of only a fortnight ago but worryingly Dana is the only share in my portfolio showing any advance since January.
Value at close of trade, Friday 22nd October:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (400p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (400p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (44p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (44p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (442p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (263p)
+ cash holdings
Return to October 22nd: +10%
Each share has advanced since my last report and Dana is again approaching a level twice what I paid. Ben Bailey continues to suffer under negative sentiment on the sector, with fellow housebuilder Taylor Woodrow adding to the gloom, warning that sales were slowing in this trading update
continuing negative media speculation means that buyers are taking longer to commit. In the light of this, we now believe it prudent to forecast 2004 home sales around 6% lower than previously targeted, against which we are 94% sold
the market responded by marking Ben Bailey down 3%, the implication being these conditions will soon be felt in Bailey's area of operations. I remain confident in my 520p evaluation for the company but a slowdown looks to be on its way, the question for the market however is how soon this will arrive and what this means for the value of the shares today.
Action in the last two weeks reveals just how volatile a small portfolio of shares can be. Previous evaluation:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (383p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (383p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (40p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (40p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (413p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (253p)
+ cash holdings
Return to October 5th: +4%
Without Dana's huge advance in 2004 my portfolio would have recorded a miserable 3% loss. Chaucer, Ben Bailey and Mayborn are all languishing underwater. Despite my 10% gain thus far I wonder if I am indeed a particularly good investor after all?
Keep watching this space.
The Artful Dodger
Value at close of trade, Friday 22nd October:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (400p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (400p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (44p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (44p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (442p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (263p)
+ cash holdings
Return to October 22nd: +10%
Each share has advanced since my last report and Dana is again approaching a level twice what I paid. Ben Bailey continues to suffer under negative sentiment on the sector, with fellow housebuilder Taylor Woodrow adding to the gloom, warning that sales were slowing in this trading update
continuing negative media speculation means that buyers are taking longer to commit. In the light of this, we now believe it prudent to forecast 2004 home sales around 6% lower than previously targeted, against which we are 94% sold
the market responded by marking Ben Bailey down 3%, the implication being these conditions will soon be felt in Bailey's area of operations. I remain confident in my 520p evaluation for the company but a slowdown looks to be on its way, the question for the market however is how soon this will arrive and what this means for the value of the shares today.
Action in the last two weeks reveals just how volatile a small portfolio of shares can be. Previous evaluation:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (383p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (383p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (40p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (40p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (413p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (253p)
+ cash holdings
Return to October 5th: +4%
Without Dana's huge advance in 2004 my portfolio would have recorded a miserable 3% loss. Chaucer, Ben Bailey and Mayborn are all languishing underwater. Despite my 10% gain thus far I wonder if I am indeed a particularly good investor after all?
Keep watching this space.
The Artful Dodger
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