Sunday, December 26, 2004
Entering home straight - 12% ahead
Two and a half trading days remain in 2004 and at the curent reckoning my portfolio is at a high for the year advancing 12% since January.
Ben Bailey has enjoyed a recent resurgence, encouraged by speculation the direction of interest rates may be downwards from here. This would be excellent news for housebuilders as mortgage affordability would support selling prices. For the last three months market expectations were for rates to advance above 5% in 2005. Published minutes from the Bank of Englands last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee have turned consensus opinion, pushing Bailey shares beyond my second purchase price of 390p to 414p to sell.
Chaucer Holdings have advanced above the price they started 2004 at, encouraged by news that a progressive policy is to be applied to the shareholder dividend and the company is on course to produce a third consecutive year of healthy underwriting profits.
I am now more confident than ever that I will achieve double-digit returns in 2004 but will be bitterly disappointed with my result for the year as a whole.
Value at close of trade, Friday 22nd October:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (400p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (400p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (44p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (44p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (442p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (263p)
+ cash holdings
Return to October 22nd: +10%
Value at close of trade, Friday 24th December:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (414p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (414p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (48p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (48p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (415p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (260p)
+ cash holdings
Return to December 24th: +12%
A full result for the year will appear here, on New Years Eve.
Happy Christmas to all readers.
The Artful Dodger
Ben Bailey has enjoyed a recent resurgence, encouraged by speculation the direction of interest rates may be downwards from here. This would be excellent news for housebuilders as mortgage affordability would support selling prices. For the last three months market expectations were for rates to advance above 5% in 2005. Published minutes from the Bank of Englands last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee have turned consensus opinion, pushing Bailey shares beyond my second purchase price of 390p to 414p to sell.
Chaucer Holdings have advanced above the price they started 2004 at, encouraged by news that a progressive policy is to be applied to the shareholder dividend and the company is on course to produce a third consecutive year of healthy underwriting profits.
I am now more confident than ever that I will achieve double-digit returns in 2004 but will be bitterly disappointed with my result for the year as a whole.
Value at close of trade, Friday 22nd October:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (400p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (400p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (44p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (44p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (442p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (263p)
+ cash holdings
Return to October 22nd: +10%
Value at close of trade, Friday 24th December:
Ben Bailey, 20/02/03 at 178p (414p)
Ben Bailey, 21/06/04 at 390p (414p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/10/03 at 42.88p (48p)
Chaucer Holdings, 06/04/2004 at 54.75p (48p)
Dana Petroleum, 20/11/03 at 223.75p (415p)
Mayborn Group, 15/03/04 at 282p (260p)
+ cash holdings
Return to December 24th: +12%
A full result for the year will appear here, on New Years Eve.
Happy Christmas to all readers.
The Artful Dodger
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