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Saturday, February 26, 2005

CHU-CHU train still running 

Every quoted company is given a shorthand moniker by financial news providers allowing investors to access quotes and announcements quickly.

Chaucer goes by the acronym CHU. Most companies have a three letter acronym to index, usually made up of letters from that company name. Dana Petroleum, Ben Bailey and Mayborn are known as DNX, BBC and MBY respectively. Recent news from other insurers and Chaucer have powered the CHU price higher.

Chaucer is a Lloyd's insurer and is part of a sector that is entering results season. Nearly all their peers will be announcing full-year results over the next month, Chaucer is due March 18th.

Amlin announced on Wednesday a record profit for insurance activity in 2002 and announced an improved forecast for the 2003 account. As for 2004...

The 2004 year of account is at an early stage of development and in setting the initial forecast, as usual, a cautious approach has been adopted. Natural catastrophe losses in this year, including the US hurricanes and Japanese typhoon, are currently forecast to be the highest ever.

Kiln followed the next day with syndicate forecasts and a few words on trading:

Kiln continues to perform exceptionally well and is taking the best advantage of the excellent trading conditions.

This is all part of the monitoring an investor in the sector must perform on a daily basis to measure the health of an investment in a similar company. Chaucer's share price has long frustrated me but the company has consistently reported strong, profitable trading since I purchased in October 2003. Chaucer impressed with it's syndicate forecasts on Friday and news that 2005 has started better than the market was anticipating have forced them to a new high:

I am delighted with the results achieved by our Syndicates for the 2002 year of account. Against a market background of high catastrophe events, the 2003 Syndicate forecasts have improved for motor, marine and non marine, and the initial 2004 forecasts are encouraging. I am also pleased to report a promising start to 2005.

Another positive proclamation that's as dry as Tutenkhamun's sherry nightcap. But who cares? The shares are moving higher.

I previously blogged on market overhangs and underhangs - the influence news on insitutional stake clearing or building can have on a company's share price. Last week saw two new announcements of fund managers increasing their exposure to shares in CHU. On Thursday, Aviva announced an increase to 6.18% and Fidelity followed on Friday with the announcement that it too now owns just over six percent of Chaucer.

The newsflow is encouraging and the price movement a wallet and ego-boost. But it's the big one sometime next week. Ben Bailey finals. At nearly 40% of my portfolio this announcement has the potential to make the recent advances of Chaucer look like a schoolboy's with-inflation pocket-money rise.

The Artful Dodger

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