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Thursday, May 26, 2005

Week of comebacks 

In the last blog I lamented the lack of progress in the portfolio since the start of April. But the change in fortunes I've enjoyed in the last week have blown away my fears of a May malaise.

Progress has been broad and significant right across the portfolio.

Chaucer

Chaucer advanced yesterday to 57p to sell, the highest point since my first purchase in October 2003. That's a 33% return in just over 18 months, not even counting dividends, which probably come in at another 4.5%. Chaucer cheered the market further today with an encouraging AGM statement. If Chaucer can maintain profitability in a declining premium environment there could be a lot more to come from this stock.

Dana Petroleum

Dana has got it's head back above water following recent conniptions. The future direction of the shares depends heavily on drilling in Mauritania, which still looks no closer to happening. The company announced today the acquisition of drilling rights offshore Morocco. But drilling rights are a lot different to drilling.

Ben Bailey

Not much to say, but the long-awaited apocalyptic house price crash still hasn't happened. Similar to Chaucer, a cooler business climate could herald a sharp increase in the company's shareprice if they continue to report healthy operating profits in a more testing environment.

Mayborn

The real star. The shares have advanced over 15% to an all time high of 446p. The shares have enjoyed the investors dream a 're-rating' where the market combatants experience a collective Damascene enlightenment, decide the shares should be priced much higher and force a re-adjustment to fair value. This re-rating has been sparked by the mooted price being paid for rival company Canon Avent. A takeover bid was made at around 18 times earnings while Mayborn sells on the stock market for 11 times. You can read the media's mention of the matter here.

Fayrewood

AGM tomorrow with trading statement expected at 7 a.m. Anything positive should see the shares rise from current depressed levels.

SVB

Slight advance closer to fair value. I think the shares will continue to creep higher as the interim results date approaches for as long as there is no further comment on the reserving issue the crucified the shares in 2004.

That's your lot! I'll be up early tomorrow for the Fayrewood announcement.

The Artful Dodger

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